Trends & Tides – India FY24 GDP Advance Estimate

The first advance estimates peg India’s FY24 GDP growth at a robust 7.3% YoY.

Financial services+ posts a healthy growth of 8.9% YoY, driven by strong credit and deposit growth. The manufacturing sector rebounds to 6.5% YoY on account of an improvement in operating margins. Construction continues to post double-digit growth in FY24. However, trade growth normalises to 6.3% YoY from a high level in FY23. Agriculture growth underperforms at 1.8% YoY due to poor kharif production.

Fixed investment growth remains robust at 10.3% YoY in FY24 on account of strong government capex and recovery in private sector capex. Private consumption, however, disappoints at 4.4% YoY. Net exports drag down GDP growth as imports growth significantly outpaces exports.

We expect FY25 GDP growth to be around 6.5% YoY. Potential downsides include weak rural recovery, subdued consumption, and the possibility of tepid global growth. On the positive side, a robust investment pipeline and potential monetary policy easing by global central banks could support growth.

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