Panorama – September 2023
Panorama September 2023 edition is out now!
Panorama is a meticulously crafted report that offers an overview of the macro factors and market trends influencing the Indian economic landscape.
Here are the key insights from the report:
1. Government support and indications of private capex revival have driven investments above pre-COVID trend, whereas subdued rural demand and elevated inflation are keeping private consumption below the trend.
2. Staples volume growth remains subdued due to high inflation and the uneven post-COVID recovery, impacting the affordability of essentials for low-income households. Discretionary consumption is performing comparatively well as affluent households have weathered economic headwinds better.
3. Two-wheeler sales remain below pre-COVID levels, while passenger vehicle sales have surpassed them. Both segments are experiencing premiumization, driven by a growing preference for high-end vehicles and subdued demand from the low to middle-income segment.
4. In Q1 FY24, India’s GDP recorded a strong 7.8% YoY growth, primarily driven by the robust expansion of the services sector. Corporations experienced an increase in operating profit growth as reduced expenses outweighed weaker sales growth.
5. FMCG and consumer durables sectors saw subdued growth in the first quarter, but sales are anticipated to pick up as the festive season commences. Auto and hospitality sales continue to perform strongly. In August 2023, passenger vehicle inventory reached a record high in anticipation of robust sales during the festive season.
6. The record monthly rainfall deficit in August has pushed the monsoon back into a deficit. Uneven distribution of monsoon likely to impact the crop yields even if the overall sowing remains normal. Weak pulses sowing and low reservoir levels in specific regions present risks to both the inflation and growth prospects.