Panorama – March 2024

Panorama March 2024 edition is out now!

Here are the key insights from the report:

  1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved from 8.1% YoY in Q2FY24 to 8.4% YoY in Q3FY24, while Gross Value Added (GVA) slowed from 7.7% YoY to 6.5% YoY during the same period. GVA is a better indicator of growth in Q3FY24, as a steep contraction in subsidies boosted GDP growth.
  2. Agriculture GVA contracted 0.8% YoY in Q3FY24 due to weak rabi (winter crop) production. The upcoming monsoon season will be critical for the sector’s recovery. Forecasts indicate that climatic conditions are set to improve, with El Niño transitioning to a neutral phase and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to become positive before the onset of the monsoon.
  3. The slowdown in job creation, reflected in the stagnant EPFO net subscriber addition, downsizing in the IT sector, and weaker growth in employee expenses, is likely to impact urban consumption. This trend has already affected the FMCG sector, with growth in Q3 hindered by a moderation in urban volume growth and a decline in prices.
  4. The proportion of food expenditure within total consumption expenditure has decreased, primarily due to a decline in cereals consumption. However, there has been an increase in the share of processed food, which now accounts for nearly one-tenth of total expenditure. Among non-food items, expenditure on transportation and durable goods has notably increased.
  5. Gold prices have remained stable, despite a sharp increase in real interest rates and a decrease in ETF gold holdings, due to increased demand from central banks. Rising geopolitical fragmentation and anticipated monetary policy easing by global central banks favour gold. Central banks’ gold demand will likely stay high as they diversify FX assets away from the US dollar.

Click here to read the full report

We hope that the report makes for an enriching read.

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