Panorama April 2025 edition is out now!

Panorama is a meticulously crafted report that provides a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic factors and market trends influencing India’s economic landscape.

Here are the key insights from the report:

1. A country’s current account balance is determined by its savings and investments. When savings exceed investments, it leads to a current account surplus; conversely, when savings fall short of investments, a current account deficit arises. The United States runs a current account deficit because its savings rate falls short of its investment rate. The imposition of reciprocal import tariffs will most likely reduce the deficit in the near term by lowering the investment rate rather than increasing the savings rate.
2. Electronics, jewellery, textiles, and other key exports to the US are at risk of being affected by a potential US slowdown. Additionally, India’s software services exports could also face challenges. However, India is relatively better placed, as exports to the US account for only 2% of India’s GDP, significantly lower than in many other countries. In the long term, if the US and China undergo economic decoupling, India stands to benefit from the diversification of supply chains.
3. New project announcements remained flat in FY25 due to a subdued Q1. However, considering this was an election year, which may have influenced corporate investment intentions, the overall figures held up well. Announcements recovered after the general elections in Q1, with a strong March quarter. Metals witnessed a steep rise in project announcements in FY25, followed by the power sector. However, project completions collapsed in FY25 due to a steep decline in government project completions, possibly due to subdued capital expenditure by the central government.
4. The IMD forecasts an above-normal monsoon at 105% of the long-period average (LPA) and assigns only an 11% probability to a below-normal or deficient monsoon. Skymet forecasts a normal monsoon at 103% of the LPA, with the monsoon expected to begin on a weaker note in June but gain strength as the season progresses. The monsoon forecasts bode well for the food inflation trajectory, allowing the RBI to continue with monetary policy easing.

Click here to read the report